Ground Hog Day

[Riverwind (imported)]

So Dave did that over sized rat come out today and see his shadow, or was there so much snow on the ground that he set the white flag instead?

River

[Dave (imported)]

I have two or three thoughts on Groundhog Day:

1) Groundhogs behave the same as hedgehogs in Europe. About February 1st or near Candlemas Day, the animals come out of their dens and scope out the female of the species. Then they go back into hibernation for another month. When they come out in March, they are ready to mate and have scoped out the female critters in the neighborhood. Remember "Mad as a March hare" ?? That's true because it is mating season for hedgehogs, groundhogs and rabbits and hares. Nothing is madder than the male of a species looking for sex once a year. . . Thus, Groundhog Day comes from the original settlers in the USA.

2) Punxsutawney Phil has been right on 39% of the time and if weathermen forecasted the weather right only 39%, then they would be fired for being wrong.

Also, it's Philomena most of the time because Phil bites and bites hard. That's why the officials wear bite-proof gloves.

Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney is a week of parties - - people are pickled, livers soused, brains are drunk into near coma states - - all in the name of party, party, party. In that section of the state of Pennsylvania, Groundhog Day is bigger for business than Christmas.

3) The weather forecast works this way: IF the sun is shining then the groundhog see his shadow and there is six more weeks of winter. If the sky is cloudy then the groundhog will not see his shadow and winter will end earlier than six weeks.

The Science Behind that is this:

The first day of Spring is March 21st of each year. However, by that time, the weather is usually warmer and heavy snow in April is a rarity. At least around this part of the USA. So that is the four weeks of February and three weeks of March or seven weeks from Candlemas.

As the Farmers Almanac and the original settlers from Europe figured out the first day of planting they noticed the passage of storms. For as many years (the Almanac dates back 1790). In the eastern USA storms would enter the west coast and take about a week to cross the country. Then there would be a period of better weather or dryer weather of about a week. Given that two week cycle, the farmers figured that if the sun was out on Candlemas then there were two more storm systems due to cross the USA and that would be a month to six weeks. If the storm was overhead at the time of Candlemas then there was only one storm system due to cross the USA after that. Hence if the groundhog could not see its shadow due to clouds, winter would end early.

It sort of works out.

AS the Mayor of Punxsutawney said today -- Six More Weeks of Winter.

[Paolo]

Bill Murray came out. He saw his shadow. It scared both of us. I shot him. I thought he was a zombie.

[nvrgag44 (imported)]

He couldn't have missed his shadow around here yesterday, Typical bright sunshine that always seems to follow a major snow storm. So bright I needed sunglasses while moving the 15+" we got over the weekend.

[C&TL2745 (imported)]

....

Punxsutawney Phil has been right on 39% of the time and if weathermen forecasted the weather right only 39%, then they would be fired for being wrong....

Viewed another way, Phil is right 61% of the time and people are just misinterpreting his forecast. If he sees his shadow, he's telling you there will be an early spring, not a late one.

Forecasting six weeks out is, I understand, of dubious accuracy no matter whether you have help from a rodent or a computer. Maybe 61% isn't all that bad for a forecast for weather 42 days in advance.

Sandi

[Dave (imported)]

I'll drink to that!

[daifu-orchid (imported)]

Should eat the groundhog.

[Uncle Flo (imported)]

"Peanut", the Groundhog that lives in my yard, did not come out, she is too smart for that. After all she has her own pet cat. --FLO--

[Riverwind (imported)]

There is another reason she did not come out, she is under 4 feet of snow.

Did some whale watching today

River