Sense you have been tracking these things, are there bigger storms today and more of them or is it about the same?

I can't fathom a Hurricane, no idea what it would be like, I have been in a couple Typhoons but no Hurricanes.

River

(long nerdy post to follow)

Each of the past three hurricane seasons have had a whopping 19 named storms, which ties all three of these years for the 3rd greatest number of all time, behind only 1933 and 2005. And while the storms have not been getting "bigger" in terms of wind speed, (there tend to be periods of very intense hurricanes that come and go. The 1960's and the early-mid 2000's were the last period of super-intense storms,) they have indeed been getting bigger and bigger in size consistently. ALL of the 10 largest hurricanes on record have occured within the last 23 years. NINE of those 10 biggest hurricanes occurred within the last 16 years. And the top 3 all occurred within the last 10 years. (Sandy will likely join this list by the time it makes landfall, since it is expected to have a gale diameter of up to 800 miles.) The past 10 years or so have seen record high ocean temperatures, the fuel that feeds hurricanes, which means that although they aren't necessarily getting stronger, they tend to have much more moisture associated with them, which allows them to grow larger in size and therefore have much greater potential for flooding and storm surge. Their actual intensity has not changed much, though. Of the top 10 most intense hurricanes on record (lowest pressure,) only six of them are from the last 15 years, and there thankfully haven't been any category-5's since 2007. If anything, hurricanes getting bigger will mean less category 5's, because high winds depend on sharp contrasts in pressure between high and low, and thus when a hurricane is so huge it actually tends to have lower winds because the pressure gradient is spread across such a large area. (Which is why we've been getting lots of hurricanes like Ike, Isaac, and Irene, which are humongous in size and have very low pressures, but really don't have the winds to match those low pressures. Irene had a pressure of 951 mb at landfall, a pressure normally associated with a category 3 or 4 hurricane, and yet its winds were only 85 mph.)

We are definitely getting more named storms per year than ever, though. There have only been 16 Atlantic hurricane seasons on record with 15 or more named storms since record-keeping began in the late 1800's. Of those 16 years, TEN have occurred since the year 2000. So that's the trend. We're getting more named storms, and hurricanes are getting larger, but not necessarily more intense in terms of wind. We thought they were after the Atlantic produced a record-shattering EIGHT category-5 hurricanes between 2003 and 2007, but the last 5 years have proven us wrong. The last year with a significant number of intense hurricanes was 2010, when we had four category-4 hurricanes, all of which re-curved harmlessly out to sea without affecting anyone but Bermuda and the Canadian maritimes.

Another factor influencing hurricane development this year has been El Nino. This hurricane season actually started out with moderate El Nino conditions, which tends to severely repress Atlantic hurricane development due to increased amounts of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. So the sheer number of storms that we have had this year is quite remarkable. The last 3 El Nino hurricane seasons (2006, 2002, and 1997,) had an average of only 10 named storms and 4 hurricanes each. 2012 has nearly doubled that amount, with 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes. So we're definitely getting more, even in spite of the high wind shear from El Nino (which is what kept both Isaac and Sandy from being much worse.) Again, this is likely because there is just more energy in the ocean nowadays. This is the same reason why we're getting stronger non-tropical storms across the US. (The strongest American non-tropical low pressure system of all time occurred in October of 2010, and a recent study has shown that the incidences of severe storms in America increased by 55% between 1948 and 2011.) More atmospheric moisture means heavier rain and greater potential for bombsticks to go off when the right atmospheric conditions set up. So although I don't see enough evidence to suggest that storms are getting stronger, I see plenty of evidence to show that there have been a lot more of them in recent years.

Riverwind (imported) wrote: Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:59 pm Sense you have been tracking these things, are there bigger storms today and more of them or is it about the same?

I can't fathom a Hurricane, no idea what it would be like, I have been in a couple Typhoons but no Hurricanes.

River

River Hurricane=Typhoon & Typhoon=Hurricane Ernie

Hurricane Ernie? Think I missed that one?

Paolo wrote: Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:01 pm Hurricane Ernie? Think I missed that one?

Depends what part of the world it is. Like a Prairie and a Steppe.

As I understand them, typhoons are Pacific, Hurricanes are Atlantic. But don't make me promise that it is true.

kristoff wrote: Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:54 pm As I understand them, typhoons are Pacific, Hurricanes are Atlantic. But don't make me promise that it is true.

100% correct. Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones are all the exact same thing. (Although in the southern hemisphere they spin the opposite way.) Here's the breakdown by basin:

Atlantic: Hurricane

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane

Northwestern Pacific: Typhoon

Southwestern Pacific: Cyclone

Indian Ocean: Cyclone

Also, if anyone is interested in seeing the winds that are being predicted for the landfalling Hurricane Sandy, here is a map. (The forecast model is the GFS, one of the most reliable hurricane models.) http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A6Q-Z3PCMAATzmb.png:large

If this indeed pans out, hurricane-force wind gusts would be experienced all the way from Maine to Washington DC, with tropical-storm force wind gusts as far west as Indiana. New York City would take the brunt of it, with winds up to 90 kts (103 mph.) Let's hope this forecast model is wrong, for everyone's sake.

(by the way, I'm a total weather nerd, in case you all haven't noticed by now.)

I was in Clearwater Florida for a scientific conference and got caught in a thunderstorm with 80-90 mph winds.

Even in just a thunderstorm the winds were so strong they blew over those large gas station canopies that you see made out of metal at the big self service stations.

The rain came into the room through the cracks in the sliding glass doors to my hotel room. Y'all know what a sliding glass door is and at that wind speed, the water blows through the seals on those doors.

The beach bar which was a Tiki type straw and wood structure lost all its glass.

The hotel staff didn't get the chance to throw the pool furniture into the water and from the hotel lobby, we watched things flying around and "decapitating" cars. It was like a metal drink table would fly into one windshield and out the other windshield on a car. Anything not attached solidly or not underwater went flying with glass breaking force.

Those funky hotels with the outside hallways and balconies and the outside elevators that have barriers along the balconies to separate rooms, well, the barriers flew off the buildings and just destroyed things as they hit the ground.

The thunderstorm lasted about 20 minutes and Hurricane Sandy will last 24 hours over the coastline.

Take this hurricane seriously and be safe.

Thanks for good wishes. If I suffer a power outage, the hospital ER confirmed they'll take me. If I can't get a cab (I don't drive), the police confirmed they'll get me to the hospital.

Ernie of Maine (imported) wrote: Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:52 pm River Hurricane=Typhoon & Typhoon=Hurricane Ernie

You caught me, I guess bringing a cyclone is out of the question?

River