Seeking wisdom

[rogerwpbfl (imported)]

How much is hype about coronavirus? Heard news reports today there are now 78,000 cases globally and 1770+ deaths worldwide. Also heard that China reported 60% of the worldwide population could become infected, and the disease's 1% mortality rate would make the final death count enormous.

How much of this is usual hype and how much is it time to take this threat serious? You older guys know these things better than the news, I hate the way they try to blow things up to scare hell out of everyone.

[Dave (imported)]

On Sunday the 16th of February, Marc Summer of the DAILY KOS staff put together a long but good article about COVID-19 (which is now the proper name for the CoronaVirus). . . This isn't a political article but a good analysis of the data and the disease. It gives solid logical reasoning about what is going on.

The article also has graphics that are meaningful and not sensationalistic.

Some of the graphics in newspapers and on TV news that I see are nothing but filler and contain no useful information.

This article shows the important stats.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/2 ... ear-70-000

It's a long article.

It also has a good list of Resource websites and answers to pertinent questions about how the statistics are calculated, the possible source of the virus, including the impossible source of the virus origin.

added-1:

If the virus is being contained, the number of total reported cases should level out and then drop on a daily basis. Those numbers are presented in graphic form in the article and there is success in containing the virus. However, remember that number depends on the diagnostic tool and there is a big jump when the health authorities changed the diagnostic tool.

added-2:

The overall death rate is less than SARS or MERS or the most frightening of all plagues - EBOLA.

It is possible COVID-19 is like the common flu or the common cold. Time will tell but the survival and recovery rates are high.

Added-3: there are hints and indications that COVID-19 is mild in healthy people, and harsher in older populations and/or sicker populations.

go read the article

[rogerwpbfl (imported)]

Thanks @Dave!

[TopManFL (imported)]

How much is hype about coronavirus? Heard news reports today there are now 78,000 cases globally and 1770+ deaths worldwide. Also heard that China reported 60% of the worldwide population could become infected, and the disease's 1% mortality rate would make the final death count enormous.

How much of this is usual hype and how much is it time to take this threat serious? You older guys know these things better than the news, I hate the way they try to blow things up to scare hell out of everyone.

Rog,

First, Hello! Where the hell you been?

But, really, I'm still waiting to die from Swine Flu. I know it's gonna get us all because the President ordered emergency vaccination of the entire nation for the Swine flu.

Here is an Article from: https://www.wired.com/2008/03/dayintech-0324/

--- Included Text of the Article At the Request of the Moderators. Note: The article is subject to Copyright ---

1976: President Gerald Ford orders a nationwide vaccination program to prevent a swine-flu epidemic.

Ford was acting on the advice of medical experts, who believed they were dealing with a virus potentially as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic.

The virus surfaced in February at Fort Dix, New Jersey, where 19-year-old Pvt. David Lewis told his drill instructor that he felt tired and weak, although not sick enough to skip a training hike. Lewis was dead with 24 hours.

The autopsy revealed that Lewis had been killed by "swine flu," an influenza virus originating in pigs. By then several other soldiers had been hospitalized with symptoms. Government doctors became alarmed when they discovered that at least 500 soldiers on the base were infected without becoming ill.

It recalled 1918, when infected soldiers returning from the trenches of World War I triggered a contagion that spread quickly around the world, killing at least 20 million people. Fearing another plague, the nation's health officials urged Ford to authorize a mass inoculation program aimed at reaching every man, woman and child. He did, to the tune of $135 million ($500 million in today's money).

Mass vaccinations started in October, but within weeks reports started coming in of people developing Guillain-Barré syndrome, a paralyzing nerve disease, right after taking the shot. Within two months, 500 people were affected, and more than 30 died. Amid a rising uproar and growing public reluctance to risk the shot, federal officials abruptly canceled the program Dec. 16.

In the end, 40 million Americans were inoculated, and there was no epidemic. A later, more technically advanced examination of the virus revealed that it was nowhere near as deadly as the 1918 influenza virus. The only recorded fatality from swine flu itself was the unfortunate Pvt. Lewis.

History's verdict of the program is mixed. Critics assail Ford, accusing him of grandstanding during an election year – it did him no good, because he lost anyway – while kowtowing to the pharmaceutical companies. Supporters laud the ability of the nation's health bureaucracy to mobilize so effectively.

--- End Included Text ---

So, yeah, there's that.

[rogerwpbfl (imported)]

Hey @TopManFL I’ve been around, I guess just not keeping up on EA as much. Charleston’s been keeping my ass busy these last few months but it’s all good stuff really. Thanks for backing me up on my thoughts about hype for these scares. I love that your article includes a military base called Fort Dix LOLOL

[Arab Nights (imported)]

Mass vaccinations started in October, but within weeks reports started coming in of people developing Guillain-Barré syndrome, a paralyzing nerve disease, right after taking the shot. Within two months, 500 people were affected, and more than 30 died. Amid a rising uproar and growing public reluctance to risk the shot, federal officials abruptly canceled the program Dec. 16.

Sounds like a solid connection?

I used to hang glide back in the 70s. We had an annual awards banquet in the depth of winter to kind of keep people together. One award that year was the Coveted Swine Flew Award for landing in a hog wallow.

[fhunter]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6 if it wasn't yet posted? (this one covers current development of the epidemic, and is updated in semi-realtime).

[Losethem (imported)]

How much is hype about coronavirus? Heard news reports today there are now 78,000 cases globally and 1770+ deaths worldwide. Also heard that China reported 60% of the worldwide population could become infected, and the disease's 1% mortality rate would make the final death count enormous.

How much of this is usual hype and how much is it time to take this threat serious? You older guys know these things better than the news, I hate the way they try to blow things up to scare hell out of everyone.

I challenge anyone who thinks this is overhyped to schedule a vacation in Hubei Province this spring.

[fhunter]

I challenge anyone who thinks this is overhyped to schedule a vacation in

Wuhan Province this spring.

As far as I can see - it is more or less contained, at least at this point. 82% cases are in Wuhan. 99% of cases are in China. Overhyped - probably no. Reason for panic - probably no reason too. As long as you live outside of Wuhan.

[AnneK_TG (imported)]

Heard news reports today there are now 78,000 cases globally and 1770+ deaths worldwide.

Almost all of those are in China, with just a few hundred cases and a few deaths elsewhere.