Global Warming Models

[moi621 (imported)]

Obviously Global Warming is too multi factorial to take too much credit for it.

Gareth, did you really compose that?

If so then what about the little Ice Age, preceded by the little warm up about

1000 - 1200 years ago. And the lack of growth around 536 AD, the Arthurian waste lands.

Seems like those Dark Ages and Middle Ages folk were experiencing lots of climate variable.

Who's fault?



Moi

For National Defense we must be secure the Gulf Stream is flowing and not allow to dump all that fresh water into our common ocean.

[transward (imported)]

I rarely deal in stuff younger than 20 million years, so that is a time frame that I am unclear about.

Gee. And I thought I felt old sometimes.

Transward

[Dave (imported)]

To be serious and not play the fool and the bitch (which was fun)

Global Warming Models deal with many variables and many sciences.

The Water Cycle -- how rain forms and falls back onto the land and flows into the ocean. How that affects "weather" adn "climate"

How the oceans flow with temperature and affects the weather and climate.

How much heat the sun pts into the environment. Albedo, clouds, ice, land and ocean.

The entire Carbon Balance on Earth -- that includes CO2 and plants and Coal, Oil, Tar Sands, Natural Gas.

Then there is the record of man's existence and the record of previous "climate" changes that we can use.

None of those subjects are easy to model alone and creating a model with all of them interacting that works was a magnificent task. What the deniers do is pick a detail and make believe the entire model fails if that detail is true. It takes no work or effort to do that.

The global warming models do work both in the long and short terms.

With warming of the air, water and land -- the model predicts more violent storms, more drastic temperatures.

The prediction in the USA is that the wet areas get wetter and the dry areas get dryer. What that turns into is that in Western PA where I live, we get more rain and milder, wet winters. We get hot summers. The storms, because temperature increases the rate of anything, get more violent. That is why nearby Washington DC got the shit slammed out of it by a series of thunderstorms beyond anything recorded in history.

The dry part is that desertification (big word) of the American Southwest will increase and expand. As it moves east into Texas and north into the Great Plains, it will affect planting seasons and food supplies. We are already seeing this happen. The most convincing of these models is the 3 to 5 year weather prediction for farmers. Every farmer is seeing the models predict bad things.

Over the Atlantic and as the portions of the Atlantic that are warm get warmer... Those "tropical waves" that move off Africa and turn into tropical depressions and then tropical storms and hurricanes will get stronger with global warming. Why? Because the air and water is warmer, evaporation increases and rises, as the wet hot air rises, it cools and falls back as rain. Once that heat engine starts, hurricanes form and the greater the evaporation and convection, the stronger the storm. What have we seen over the past number of years -- a greater number of class 5 hurricanes. Now in terms of why a hurricane gets stronger as it nears the USA, remember that the Gulf Stream of hot water flows from South America all the way p our East coast and then across the Atlantic where it is still warm enough to moderate temperatures in the British Isles.

In a body of water like the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Ocean that has no major source of cold water the result is spectacularly strong hurricanes. Think of the last few years and how those monster storms have hit the southern coastlines and then blasted up the middle of the USA spreading rain and flooding everywhere.

So this is global warming. We might be able to lessen the destruction and damage if we start to plan for it.

Or we can stick our heads in the sand and do nothing.

[moi621 (imported)]

Dave, seriously -

"Then again some volcano in the west Pacific could blow its' top

and all the models go bust."

Maybe, we have a living autothermic planet. Not Ghia (biological) but, Terra (geological).

Heat the earth up and more volcanoes erupt cooling the earth down.

Moi

[Riverwind (imported)]

moi, seriously. For someone with your smarts and education I would expect more. Then again maybe it will happen when your piece of heaven is finally under attack, which it will be because nobody gets a free pass.

I brought this over from another thread, it really belongs in both places.

Question, is the storm they just had the 100 year storm, like the 100 year tornado's they had last year and the 100 year flood they had the year before? Are these weather patterns happening else where in the world? I wonder what could be the cause?

Are the Russians still running the cruse ship to the North Poll?

These and other important questions will be answered by Moi.

River

[Dave (imported)]

Dave, seriously -

"Then again some volcano in the west Pacific could blow its' top

and all the models go bust."

Maybe, we have a living autothermic planet. Not Ghia (biological) but, Terra (geological).

Heat the earth up and more volcanoes erupt cooling the earth down.

Moi

And now everyone knows why my first post was so bitchy and cruel that I made it into a joke.

A fucking volcano eruption does not mean that we should do nothing to reduce emissions and turn to other fuels and energy sources.

[moi621 (imported)]

moi, seriously. For someone with your smarts and education I would expect more. Then again maybe it will happen when your piece of heaven is finally under attack, which it will be because nobody gets a free pass.

I brought this over from another thread, it really belongs in both places.

Question, is the storm they just had the 100 year storm, like the 100 year tornado's they had last year and the 100 year flood they had the year before? Are these weather patterns happening else where in the world? I wonder what could be the cause?

Are the Russians still running the cruse ship to the North Poll?

These and other important questions will be answered by Moi.

River

What is wrong with my auto thermal geologically based model.

I have not minced the numbers but, I am sure fhunter can give us a quick analysis of the thermodynamics.

River, you know I am waiting for green grazing pastures in Greenland as recorded 1000 years ago.

Bone analysis shows 80% of their protein came from their grazing critters. In the beginning.

I am also waiting for some vacation cruise line to offer travel along the newly opened,

NorthWest Passage. Now that will be exciting in concept although no doubt one hell of a boring cruise.

I see nothing going on that did not go on in recorded history.

BTW when was the last time a city sank into the ocean like ancient Alexandria

or Port Royal some 400 years ago.

The biggest impact human kind has had on the planet has been from the early metal ages,

and chopping down all those trees. And the continual deforestation such as America once so thick with forest a squirrel could tree jump from the Atlantic to the Mississippi. The Euro way has always been to clear the forests. Today we have the unenforceable deforestation in the Amazon.

Consider, for the last 6000 years, there has been a steady deforestation of Earth.

Global warming. Drought. I believe. Plant trees. Create forests.

Moi

Believer

[A-1 (imported)]

moi...

YOU are the biggest effect that humanity has had on the planet in my humble estimation...