Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
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punkypink (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
Got to also consider that even with their alleged nuclear capacity, countries like Iran, N.Korea, maybe have enough nuke to take one, 2 cities out, but that's it. In return, they get wiped out. It'd be global news, but it would not be WW3. For WW3 to really happen you'd need not nuclear capability, but the sort of logistics and might to actually wage a conventional war, and who are the global players with that sort of ability? China, USA, Russia? Maybe Europe as a whole, or South America? But all these countries are probably more interested in making money than starting wars, since a war as a whole is quite damaging to the economy in this current economic climate.
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Elizabeth (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
OK, get a cup of coffee, because this is going to be a pretty long post. Sorry about that, but I don't see any other way because the problems are so complex. Is WWIII coming?, not likely, but that doesn't mean there is not going to be a war. I believe there is going to be a war.
Iran is not going to stop enriching uranium and they are not going to stop their pursuit of nuclear weapons. While nuclear weapons won't allow Iran to threaten the US, it certainly can threaten neighboring states that are allied with the US. Can Iran keep the Strait of Hormuz closed? No, they are no match for the US Navy or for that matter the Navies of all the other countries who use those waterways. So that really is a hollow threat. But what they can do is close it for a while, have the area declared a war zone by insurance companies, bomb oil installations in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc., etc. That will cause extremely high gas prices world wide, which will help Iran and most likely send the US and European countries back into recession. So the Iranian strategy is going to be to cause as much economic harm as possible to make it untolerable to the US and it's allies.
This is not the only ace in the hole Iran has. Iran also sells a major portion of their oil to China, which now uses almost as much oil a day as the US. So the US ending up in control of Iranian oil is not something the Chinese would like to see. In fact the US has already got the Saudi's to agree to make up any shortfalls that the Chinese might suffer as a result of not backing up Iran. But China is not stupid, they responded that Saudi Arabia is the US's ally, not China's and that would put China in a bad position. So not only has China pretty much blocked anything we have tried to do at the United Nations, it's unclear if China would intercede on Iran's behalf to protect that oil, as a matter of their national security.
The next piece of the puzzle is Russia. Russia does a lot of oilfield services work in Iran. The kind of work that Haliburton does world wide. It's very profitable, specialized work. on top of that Russia sells Iran most of it's refined fuels, including gas, diesel, and kerosene, as Iran has no refining capacity of it's own. Russia also built and supplies the nuclear fuel for a Nuclear power plant they built for Iran, in Iran. In short, Iran is an important trading partner to Russia as well. Russia is not at all for embargoing the fuel it sells to Iran. So Russia has also been an obstructionist at the United Nations, as far as sanctions go.
And then there is Israel. Iran has publicly stated that it want to wipe Israel off the face of the earth as well as being Holocaust deniers. Also, Hesbollah and Hamas are both Iranian supplied and are widely considered to be an arm of the Iranian government. Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate a Nuclear Iran, just as it said it would not tolerate an Iraqi nuclear power plant as a guise to building nuclear weapons. As in the case of the Iraq, Israel has said that it hopes the situation can be resolved through diplomacy, but says that if need be, it will disarm Iran, and it has about 300 nuclear warheads and missiles to deliver them. It will not lose a survival war in Iran, unless of course China or Russia intercede.
Now keep in mind, Israel can hit both countries with nuclear warheads as it has ICBM capability. Meaning, they are not going to all out war against Israel without paying a price. Not to mention Israel is a US ally, whom we have pledged to defend. So? What happens when Israel strikes Iran? There are a lot of things that can happen that are really bad. If Israel attacks, Iran has said it would consider this a proxy attack from the US and would go after Gulf oil assets of US allies as well as try to close off the Strait of Hormuz. This would get the countries with large navies involved and in a war zone a lot can go wrong or even right, that could mean all out war.
But there are other factors. China can't really go to war against the US as we are their number one trading partner, not to mention they are holding about a trillion and a half dollars of T-bills that they would most certainly lose in the event of war between them. So I see that as really unlikely. What a slowly escalating war in the Gulf and Iran could get real nasty for a fairly long time.
Despite the rhetoric, Iran is no match for the US military, I doubt anyone would argue they could withstand an attack from the US, however the cost of pacifying Iran will be huge in both lives lost and treasure spent and will take decade before all is said and done.
Elizabeth
Iran is not going to stop enriching uranium and they are not going to stop their pursuit of nuclear weapons. While nuclear weapons won't allow Iran to threaten the US, it certainly can threaten neighboring states that are allied with the US. Can Iran keep the Strait of Hormuz closed? No, they are no match for the US Navy or for that matter the Navies of all the other countries who use those waterways. So that really is a hollow threat. But what they can do is close it for a while, have the area declared a war zone by insurance companies, bomb oil installations in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc., etc. That will cause extremely high gas prices world wide, which will help Iran and most likely send the US and European countries back into recession. So the Iranian strategy is going to be to cause as much economic harm as possible to make it untolerable to the US and it's allies.
This is not the only ace in the hole Iran has. Iran also sells a major portion of their oil to China, which now uses almost as much oil a day as the US. So the US ending up in control of Iranian oil is not something the Chinese would like to see. In fact the US has already got the Saudi's to agree to make up any shortfalls that the Chinese might suffer as a result of not backing up Iran. But China is not stupid, they responded that Saudi Arabia is the US's ally, not China's and that would put China in a bad position. So not only has China pretty much blocked anything we have tried to do at the United Nations, it's unclear if China would intercede on Iran's behalf to protect that oil, as a matter of their national security.
The next piece of the puzzle is Russia. Russia does a lot of oilfield services work in Iran. The kind of work that Haliburton does world wide. It's very profitable, specialized work. on top of that Russia sells Iran most of it's refined fuels, including gas, diesel, and kerosene, as Iran has no refining capacity of it's own. Russia also built and supplies the nuclear fuel for a Nuclear power plant they built for Iran, in Iran. In short, Iran is an important trading partner to Russia as well. Russia is not at all for embargoing the fuel it sells to Iran. So Russia has also been an obstructionist at the United Nations, as far as sanctions go.
And then there is Israel. Iran has publicly stated that it want to wipe Israel off the face of the earth as well as being Holocaust deniers. Also, Hesbollah and Hamas are both Iranian supplied and are widely considered to be an arm of the Iranian government. Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate a Nuclear Iran, just as it said it would not tolerate an Iraqi nuclear power plant as a guise to building nuclear weapons. As in the case of the Iraq, Israel has said that it hopes the situation can be resolved through diplomacy, but says that if need be, it will disarm Iran, and it has about 300 nuclear warheads and missiles to deliver them. It will not lose a survival war in Iran, unless of course China or Russia intercede.
Now keep in mind, Israel can hit both countries with nuclear warheads as it has ICBM capability. Meaning, they are not going to all out war against Israel without paying a price. Not to mention Israel is a US ally, whom we have pledged to defend. So? What happens when Israel strikes Iran? There are a lot of things that can happen that are really bad. If Israel attacks, Iran has said it would consider this a proxy attack from the US and would go after Gulf oil assets of US allies as well as try to close off the Strait of Hormuz. This would get the countries with large navies involved and in a war zone a lot can go wrong or even right, that could mean all out war.
But there are other factors. China can't really go to war against the US as we are their number one trading partner, not to mention they are holding about a trillion and a half dollars of T-bills that they would most certainly lose in the event of war between them. So I see that as really unlikely. What a slowly escalating war in the Gulf and Iran could get real nasty for a fairly long time.
Despite the rhetoric, Iran is no match for the US military, I doubt anyone would argue they could withstand an attack from the US, however the cost of pacifying Iran will be huge in both lives lost and treasure spent and will take decade before all is said and done.
Elizabeth
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gunnutz (imported)
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sduyck_2000 (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
Iran would pay the ultimate nuclear price if they ever used their weapon if the politicians are not a group cowards and back down
If they do back down the nuclear deterrent will be worthless
If they do back down the nuclear deterrent will be worthless
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punkypink (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
localised conflict.
India is massive enough that Pakistan would lose if there was a proper war between the 2. Pakistan knows this. The rest of the world would try to ensure that a war does not break out between the 2 either, since Pakistan is vital to the pacification efforts in a-stan, and a Pakistan weakened by war is no good to anyone.
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bobover3 (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
Pakistan and India are both nuclear powers. They developed these weapons, despite US disapproval, to threaten one another. Since they don't threaten anyone else, it's not discussed much. Worth noting that Pakistan is an Islamic country which has refrained from using its nukes aggressively, though it's not an Islamic theocracy like Iran.
I do have some concern about Iran because it's a theocracy, and because Shia Islam - the form of Islam prevalent in Iran - places a premium on martyrdom. Shiites also believe the coming of the Twelfth Imam will be preceded by an apocalypse (not unlike the Christian Armageddon). We may hope saner heads prevail, but I'm uneasy about a theocracy prizing martyrdom and longing for apocalypse.
The question is what, if anything, can be done to prevent Iran acquiring nukes, and by whom. (Many have hoped Israel would do the West's heavy lifting, and then bear the hypocritical condemnation afterwards.)
Another question is whether anyone has the moral right to prevent Iran from acquiring nukes. After all, it would be a good thing if no one, including the US, had nukes. By what right can we deny Iran something so many other nations have? The answer is the assumption - and it's nothing more than an assumption - that Iran is more likely than others to use its nukes, and also the assumption that we or our allies are likely to be the targets. Are these assumptions correct? The normal rule is that war is justified only after one has been attacked, but the harm caused by a nuclear attack is so great that a credible threat may be enough to act. How far are we willing to go?
In any case, I can't imagine Barack Obama going beyond obviously futile diplomatic gestures. He's implementing a strategy of military reduction, inconsistent with military action or even a believable military threat. But if Iran is a true threat, the difficulty in removing that threat grows with time.
I do have some concern about Iran because it's a theocracy, and because Shia Islam - the form of Islam prevalent in Iran - places a premium on martyrdom. Shiites also believe the coming of the Twelfth Imam will be preceded by an apocalypse (not unlike the Christian Armageddon). We may hope saner heads prevail, but I'm uneasy about a theocracy prizing martyrdom and longing for apocalypse.
The question is what, if anything, can be done to prevent Iran acquiring nukes, and by whom. (Many have hoped Israel would do the West's heavy lifting, and then bear the hypocritical condemnation afterwards.)
Another question is whether anyone has the moral right to prevent Iran from acquiring nukes. After all, it would be a good thing if no one, including the US, had nukes. By what right can we deny Iran something so many other nations have? The answer is the assumption - and it's nothing more than an assumption - that Iran is more likely than others to use its nukes, and also the assumption that we or our allies are likely to be the targets. Are these assumptions correct? The normal rule is that war is justified only after one has been attacked, but the harm caused by a nuclear attack is so great that a credible threat may be enough to act. How far are we willing to go?
In any case, I can't imagine Barack Obama going beyond obviously futile diplomatic gestures. He's implementing a strategy of military reduction, inconsistent with military action or even a believable military threat. But if Iran is a true threat, the difficulty in removing that threat grows with time.
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Dave (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
>>AN interesting article on IRAN...
>>
>>http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world ... ntist.html
Iran Reports Killing of Nuclear Scientist in ‘Terrorist’ Blast
Published: January 11, 2012
A car belonging to the Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was removed from the site where a car bomb exploded on Wednesday in Tehran, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency, which supplied this photo.
By ALAN COWELL and RICK GLADSTONE
Published: January 11, 2012
LONDON — A bomber on a motorcycle killed a scientist from Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment site and his bodyguard-driver on Wednesday during the morning commute in Tehran, Iranian media reported, in an assassination that could further elevate international tensions over the Iranian nuclear program and stoke the country’s growing anti-Western belligerence.
Related
Iranian policemen worked at the site of a blast in Tehran on Wednesday
It was the fourth such attack reported in two years and, as after the previous episodes, Iran accused the United States and Israel of responsibility. The White House condemned the attack and denied any responsibility. The official reaction in Israel appeared to be more cryptic.
Iranian news accounts said the suspected assassin had attached a magnetized explosive device to the scientist’s car and escaped during the rush hour in northern Tehran. News photographs from the scene showed a car, a Peugeot 405, draped in a pale blue tarp being lifted onto a truck. Some photographs published by Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency showed what it said was the body of the scientist still inside the car. The head was covered with a white cloth.
The scientist was identified as Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, 32, a professor at a technical university in Tehran, and a department supervisor at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant — one of two known sites where Western leaders suspect Iranian scientists are advancing toward the creation of a nuclear weapon.
The Mehr news agency said the explosion took place on Gol Nabi street, on the scientist’s route to work, at 8:20 a.m. The news agency said he was employed at the Natanz site as the director of commercial affairs.
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but is facing a growing battery of international sanctions intended to force it to halt its enrichment program and negotiate with the West. On Jan. 23, European Union foreign ministers are to discuss a possible oil export embargo, adding further pressure.
Despite those pressures, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said it would not be diverted from its pursuit of nuclear technology. “America and Israel’s heinous act will not change the course of the Iranian nation,” it said in a statement quoted by Reuters.
The semiofficial Fars news agency, which has close links to the powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps, said the Wednesday bombing resembled the methods used in attacks in November 2010 against two other nuclear specialists — Majid Shahriari, who was killed, and Fereydoon Abbasi, who survived and is now in charge of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.
Almost exactly two years ago in January 2010, a physics professor, Massoud Ali Mohammadi, was also assassinated in Tehran.
Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the attacks in 2010, and the latest killing is bound to deepen an embattled mood in Tehran as the country’s divided leaders approach parliamentary elections in March. News of the blast emerged quickly on Iran’s state-run media.
“The bomb was a magnetic one and the same as the ones previously used for the assassination of the scientists and is the work of the Zionists,” Fars quoted Tehran’s deputy governor, Safar Ali Baratlou, as saying, reflecting a suspicion that the West and its allies were waging a covert war.
In Washington, Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council, said in reaction to the attack: “The United States had absolutely nothing to do with this. We strongly condemn all acts of violence, including acts of violence like what is being reported today.”
In Israel, which regards Iran as its most significant security threat, the denial was much more vague. Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, the Israeli military spokesman, wrote on his Facebook page that “I don’t know who took revenge on the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding a tear,” Agence France-Presse reported.
Theodore Karasik, a security expert at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, said the assassination fit a pattern over the past two years of covert operations by the West and its allies to “degrade and delay” Iran’s nuclear program.
In a telephone interview, Mr. Karasik said other elements of the Western campaign included the deployment of a computer worm known as Stuxnet and the sale of doctored computer software to hamper the enrichment program.
He said magnetic bombs were used in covert operations, describing them as “clean, easy and efficient.”
In recent days, several events have combined to create the deepest tension with the United States since the Islamic revolution in 1979 and the subsequent seizure of hostages at the American Embassy in Tehran.
The Iranian Fars news agency released what it said was an image of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist reported to have been killed on Wednesday.
Last weekend, Iran’s top nuclear official said the country was about to start production at its second major uranium enrichment site, in a defiant declaration that its nuclear program would continue despite the sanctions.
The announcement came two months after the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear oversight body based in Vienna, published a report that Iranian scientists had engaged in secret and possibly continuing efforts to construct a nuclear weapon.
The imminent opening of the site — the Fordo plant, near the city of Qum — confronted the United States and its allies with difficult choices about how far to go to limit Iran’s nuclear abilities. The new plant is buried deep underground on a well-defended military site and is considered far more resistant to airstrikes than the existing enrichment site at Natanz, limiting what Israeli officials, in particular, consider an important deterrent to Iran’s nuclear aims.
On Monday, Iran announced that Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, a former United States Marine from Flint, Mich., had been convicted of spying for the Central Intelligence Agency and sentenced to death. Mr. Hekmati was arrested in August while he was visiting Iran for the first time.
His family, traumatized by the news, has asserted his innocence, saying he was visiting relatives, and has characterized the prosecution as a grave misunderstanding.
Mr. Hekmati served in the Marines for four years, spent five months in Iraq and took linguistics training in Arabic at the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, Calif. He was carrying his former military identification with him when arrested in Iran, atypical behavior for a spy.
Nonetheless, Iranian investigators may have been intrigued by Mr. Hekmati’s post-military linguistics work. In 2006, he started his own company, Lucid Linguistics, doing document translation that specialized in Arabic, Persian and “military-related matters,” according its Web site. “Our main goal is to assist organizations whose focus is on the current Global War on Terrorism and who are working to bridge the language barrier for our armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan,” the site said.
Possibly more intriguing to the Iranians was work done a few years later by Mr. Hekmati while working for Kuma Games, which specializes in recreating military confrontations that enable players to participate in games based on real events.
A Pentagon language-training contract won in 2009 by Kuma Games, a New York-based company that develops reality-based war games — including one called “Assault on Iran” — lists Mr. Hekmati as a main contact.
That $95,920 contract, and Mr. Hekmati’s military background, his Iranian heritage and some linguistics work he did for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, help explain why the authorities in Iran had him arrested.
At the same time, Iran has intensified belligerency to the naval activities of the American Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf and has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route.
The United States Navy has responded with two well-publicized sea rescues in the area within a week.
On Tuesday, a vessel on patrol with the Navy’s Fifth Fleet near the Persian Gulf saved a group of distressed Iranian mariners, pulling them to safety from a cargo dhow that was foundering with a flooded engine room, the Naval central command reported.
In a statement, the command said the Coast Guard patrol boat Monomoy, on assignment with a Fifth Fleet task force in the northern Arabian Gulf, approached the stricken Iranian dhow, the Ya-Hussayn, after the its crew hailed the Monomoy with flares and flashlights before dawn.
Last Friday, the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis broke up a high-seas pirate attack on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Sailors from an American destroyer boarded the pirates’ mother ship and freed 13 Iranian hostages who had been held captive there for more than a month.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world ... ntist.html
>>
>>http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world ... ntist.html
Iran Reports Killing of Nuclear Scientist in ‘Terrorist’ Blast
Published: January 11, 2012
A car belonging to the Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was removed from the site where a car bomb exploded on Wednesday in Tehran, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency, which supplied this photo.
By ALAN COWELL and RICK GLADSTONE
Published: January 11, 2012
LONDON — A bomber on a motorcycle killed a scientist from Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment site and his bodyguard-driver on Wednesday during the morning commute in Tehran, Iranian media reported, in an assassination that could further elevate international tensions over the Iranian nuclear program and stoke the country’s growing anti-Western belligerence.
Related
Iranian policemen worked at the site of a blast in Tehran on Wednesday
It was the fourth such attack reported in two years and, as after the previous episodes, Iran accused the United States and Israel of responsibility. The White House condemned the attack and denied any responsibility. The official reaction in Israel appeared to be more cryptic.
Iranian news accounts said the suspected assassin had attached a magnetized explosive device to the scientist’s car and escaped during the rush hour in northern Tehran. News photographs from the scene showed a car, a Peugeot 405, draped in a pale blue tarp being lifted onto a truck. Some photographs published by Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency showed what it said was the body of the scientist still inside the car. The head was covered with a white cloth.
The scientist was identified as Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, 32, a professor at a technical university in Tehran, and a department supervisor at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant — one of two known sites where Western leaders suspect Iranian scientists are advancing toward the creation of a nuclear weapon.
The Mehr news agency said the explosion took place on Gol Nabi street, on the scientist’s route to work, at 8:20 a.m. The news agency said he was employed at the Natanz site as the director of commercial affairs.
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but is facing a growing battery of international sanctions intended to force it to halt its enrichment program and negotiate with the West. On Jan. 23, European Union foreign ministers are to discuss a possible oil export embargo, adding further pressure.
Despite those pressures, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said it would not be diverted from its pursuit of nuclear technology. “America and Israel’s heinous act will not change the course of the Iranian nation,” it said in a statement quoted by Reuters.
The semiofficial Fars news agency, which has close links to the powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps, said the Wednesday bombing resembled the methods used in attacks in November 2010 against two other nuclear specialists — Majid Shahriari, who was killed, and Fereydoon Abbasi, who survived and is now in charge of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.
Almost exactly two years ago in January 2010, a physics professor, Massoud Ali Mohammadi, was also assassinated in Tehran.
Iran blamed Israel and the United States for the attacks in 2010, and the latest killing is bound to deepen an embattled mood in Tehran as the country’s divided leaders approach parliamentary elections in March. News of the blast emerged quickly on Iran’s state-run media.
“The bomb was a magnetic one and the same as the ones previously used for the assassination of the scientists and is the work of the Zionists,” Fars quoted Tehran’s deputy governor, Safar Ali Baratlou, as saying, reflecting a suspicion that the West and its allies were waging a covert war.
In Washington, Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council, said in reaction to the attack: “The United States had absolutely nothing to do with this. We strongly condemn all acts of violence, including acts of violence like what is being reported today.”
In Israel, which regards Iran as its most significant security threat, the denial was much more vague. Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai, the Israeli military spokesman, wrote on his Facebook page that “I don’t know who took revenge on the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding a tear,” Agence France-Presse reported.
Theodore Karasik, a security expert at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, said the assassination fit a pattern over the past two years of covert operations by the West and its allies to “degrade and delay” Iran’s nuclear program.
In a telephone interview, Mr. Karasik said other elements of the Western campaign included the deployment of a computer worm known as Stuxnet and the sale of doctored computer software to hamper the enrichment program.
He said magnetic bombs were used in covert operations, describing them as “clean, easy and efficient.”
In recent days, several events have combined to create the deepest tension with the United States since the Islamic revolution in 1979 and the subsequent seizure of hostages at the American Embassy in Tehran.
The Iranian Fars news agency released what it said was an image of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist reported to have been killed on Wednesday.
Last weekend, Iran’s top nuclear official said the country was about to start production at its second major uranium enrichment site, in a defiant declaration that its nuclear program would continue despite the sanctions.
The announcement came two months after the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear oversight body based in Vienna, published a report that Iranian scientists had engaged in secret and possibly continuing efforts to construct a nuclear weapon.
The imminent opening of the site — the Fordo plant, near the city of Qum — confronted the United States and its allies with difficult choices about how far to go to limit Iran’s nuclear abilities. The new plant is buried deep underground on a well-defended military site and is considered far more resistant to airstrikes than the existing enrichment site at Natanz, limiting what Israeli officials, in particular, consider an important deterrent to Iran’s nuclear aims.
On Monday, Iran announced that Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, a former United States Marine from Flint, Mich., had been convicted of spying for the Central Intelligence Agency and sentenced to death. Mr. Hekmati was arrested in August while he was visiting Iran for the first time.
His family, traumatized by the news, has asserted his innocence, saying he was visiting relatives, and has characterized the prosecution as a grave misunderstanding.
Mr. Hekmati served in the Marines for four years, spent five months in Iraq and took linguistics training in Arabic at the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, Calif. He was carrying his former military identification with him when arrested in Iran, atypical behavior for a spy.
Nonetheless, Iranian investigators may have been intrigued by Mr. Hekmati’s post-military linguistics work. In 2006, he started his own company, Lucid Linguistics, doing document translation that specialized in Arabic, Persian and “military-related matters,” according its Web site. “Our main goal is to assist organizations whose focus is on the current Global War on Terrorism and who are working to bridge the language barrier for our armed forces in Iraq and Afghanistan,” the site said.
Possibly more intriguing to the Iranians was work done a few years later by Mr. Hekmati while working for Kuma Games, which specializes in recreating military confrontations that enable players to participate in games based on real events.
A Pentagon language-training contract won in 2009 by Kuma Games, a New York-based company that develops reality-based war games — including one called “Assault on Iran” — lists Mr. Hekmati as a main contact.
That $95,920 contract, and Mr. Hekmati’s military background, his Iranian heritage and some linguistics work he did for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, help explain why the authorities in Iran had him arrested.
At the same time, Iran has intensified belligerency to the naval activities of the American Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf and has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route.
The United States Navy has responded with two well-publicized sea rescues in the area within a week.
On Tuesday, a vessel on patrol with the Navy’s Fifth Fleet near the Persian Gulf saved a group of distressed Iranian mariners, pulling them to safety from a cargo dhow that was foundering with a flooded engine room, the Naval central command reported.
In a statement, the command said the Coast Guard patrol boat Monomoy, on assignment with a Fifth Fleet task force in the northern Arabian Gulf, approached the stricken Iranian dhow, the Ya-Hussayn, after the its crew hailed the Monomoy with flares and flashlights before dawn.
Last Friday, the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis broke up a high-seas pirate attack on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Sailors from an American destroyer boarded the pirates’ mother ship and freed 13 Iranian hostages who had been held captive there for more than a month.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/world ... ntist.html
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bobover3 (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
Very interesting. I'd be surprised if Iran's program is so sparsely staffed that killing a handful of scientists would be enough to derail it. At most, it might slow them down, which is a good thing. It buys time for the enemies of the Iranian theocracy to find their balls.
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punkypink (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
Even if Iran started a war it'd be localised. Physical size does have an impact on a country. For starters, a larger country's population centers are much more spread out. If you truly wished to destroy them you'd need a lot of nukes to accomplish that. How many nukes would one need to drop on Iran to totally wipe them out? Iran knows this, for all the martyrdoom that you think they're all fanatic about, they've been beligrent rather than outright suicidal all this while because the people at the top are seldom ever suicidal when they're busy enjoying the trappings of power. For all the importance you place on their theocracy, the fact is, human nature is human nature.
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gunnutz (imported)
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Re: Are we seeing WWIII in the making?
punkypink (imported) wrote: Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:13 pm localised conflict.
India is massive enough that Pakistan would lose if there was a proper war between the 2. Pakistan knows this. The rest of the world would try to ensure that a war does not break out between the 2 either, since Pakistan is vital to the pacification efforts in a-stan, and a Pakistan weakened by war is no good to anyone.
A lot of conflicts we thought would be localized were not. I am not talking about them blowing each other up but what rolls they play in any up coming conflict.
Pakistan is where they found Osama demonstrating the lack of love they have for us, remember how the news of what we had done was received? They were pissed at their own people who had helped us.
Dave consider the US man captured as a spy may actually be a spy? Misdirection, let Israel take the heat while the US plays hard ball? I doubt this because I would think Israel would have better assets there than us, but you never can know.