sensenbender (imported) wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2010 8:33 am My understanding of the scientific method is, "First the theory, then the data."
You have that backwards. The scientific method is to take all of the data that you currently have on the subject and try to formulate the simplest and most logical way to explain ALL of it. This is then called a “theory.” Any proper theory, by nature of its formulation, will clearly indicate the kinds of NEW data that would prove it wrong.
Scientists then begin searching for ways to disprove the theory. You can NEVER prove a theory correct, as that would require collecting 100% of every possible piece of data that could possibly exist concerning it. You can prove it wrong with only a single observation of a properly documented fact that doesn’t fit it.
Scientists never prove anything to be true, they only tentatively hold logical explanations that have not yet been proven false. The longer the search for contrary data has turned up nothing, the more they are willing to accept the theory as probably (but never absolutely) correct.
The “theory of gravity” for example, is still being tested, but without much enthusiasm as it’s difficult to think of new lines of inquiry that might disprove it that haven’t already been tried. The “theory of relativity” gets more attention from physicists and there are continuing attempts to find holes in it, including some fairly interesting ones. The “theory of evolution” gets most of its attention from religious fundamentalists, not from scientists, though the continuing collection of data has resulted in slight modifications of the theory over time. For example, Darwin knew nothing of genes, but their discovery added a mechanism to his theory, rather than proving it false. The new work on epigenetics is extending it yet again in promising directions.
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